Friday, March 13, 2026
57.8%doom
Threat Level, tier 6 of 10.
Iran's freshly installed supreme leader has used his inaugural statement not for olive branches or diplomatic niceties, but to formally commit to choking the world's oil jugular — apparently the new guy read the job description and said 'yes, all of it.' Meanwhile, black smoke is billowing from Dubai's financial district, drones are killing people in Oman, and Asian governments are going four-day-week just to survive the fuel crisis. Day 14 of this war and the new leadership has immediately hardened Iran's position rather than offering any off-ramp.
The story behind it: Iran's new supreme leader vows to block Strait of Hormuz in first statement.
42.2%dawn
Bright Spot, tier 5 of 10.
Stanford researchers have demonstrated that boosting gut-brain signaling can actually reverse cognitive decline in aging mice — a finding that ripples with hope for Alzheimer's and dementia research at a moment when the world badly needs good news. While war dominates the headlines and pDoom sits at 57.8%, science quietly keeps delivering: this is the kind of incremental, peer-reviewed breakthrough that compounds over decades into treatments that save millions of minds. The gut-brain axis has been a tantalizing frontier for years; results like these suggest we are closer than ever to turning that frontier into medicine.
The story behind it: Enhancing gut-brain communication reversed cognitive decline in aging mice.
The days before
| Day | Doom | Dawn | Doom headline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Mar 12 | 58.3% | 41.7% | 20% OF THE WORLD'S OIL JUST WENT DARK |
| Wed, Mar 11 | 58.6% | 41.4% | THEY'RE MINING THE WORLD'S OIL DRAIN |
| Tue, Mar 10 | 58.9% | 41.1% | NEW SUPREME LEADER, SAME WAR, MORE MISSILES |
| Mon, Mar 9 | 59.4% | 40.6% | AMERICA PACKING BAGS IN RIYADH |
| Sun, Mar 8 | 60.8% | 39.2% | THEY JUST SET THE OIL ON FIRE |
| Sat, Mar 7 | 61.3% | 38.7% | RUSSIA FEEDING IRAN THE COORDINATES |
| Fri, Mar 6 | 64.0% | 36.0% | WAR REACHES THE SILICON SUPPLY CHAIN |
| Thu, Mar 5 | 61.1% | 38.9% | FIRST TORPEDO IN EIGHTY YEARS |
| Wed, Mar 4 | 62.4% | 37.6% | IRAN CALLS THIS THE OPENING MOVE |
| Tue, Mar 3 | 67.6% | 32.4% | AMERICANS DEAD. HORMUZ CLOSED. MARKETS SCREAMING. |
| Mon, Mar 2 | 67.8% | 32.2% | THE WAR JUST HIT A NATO ALLY'S DOORSTEP |
| Sun, Mar 1 | 77.1% | 22.9% | DAY TWO: MISSILES IN DUBAI, MARKETS IN FREEFALL |
| Sat, Feb 28 | 70.0% | 30.0% | OPERATION EPIC FURY IS VERY MUCH HAPPENING |
| Fri, Feb 27 | 39.4% | 60.6% | AI COMPANY TELLS WAR DEPARTMENT TO GO POUND SAND |
How it works
Every morning a pipeline pulls a couple of hundred headlines from 16 news sources. Claude scores the day for doom three times without seeing past scores, takes the middle answer, and smooths it so a single loud headline can't swing the number on its own. Then it picks the day's best news for the dawn card, and each reading is painted as pixel art. Doom and dawn always add up to 100.
It's a thought experiment and a daily ritual, not a forecast.
pDoom on iPhone
The app has every reading since February, trend charts, and the factor breakdown behind each number. It's free.
Get pDoom free on iPhone