Thursday, March 5, 2026
61.1%doom
Red Alert, tier 7 of 10.
A U.S. submarine just torpedoed an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean — the first such attack since World War II — while Iranian drones are hitting airports in Azerbaijan, explosions are reported in Qatar, and Canada is refusing to rule out joining the war. Day six of this conflict is doing exactly what day six of conflicts tends to do: expand. The US Senate tried to invoke war powers to rein Trump in and failed, which means the legal guardrails are off and the only speed is forward.
The story behind it: U.S. submarine sinks Iranian warship in Indian Ocean as conflict widens.
38.9%dawn
Rays Breaking, tier 4 of 10.
While the world watches missiles and warships, a clinical trial quietly delivered news that will change the lives of families who've spent years watching their children suffer through relentless seizures. Zorevunersen reduced seizures in Dravet syndrome patients by up to 91% — a condition so severe it has long defeated most treatments. On a day when pDoom sits at 61.1%, this is the kind of human achievement that reminds us: the labs never stop, the researchers never quit, and the children who couldn't be protected before may now have a real chance.
The story behind it: New drug cuts seizures by up to 91% in children with rare epilepsy.
The days before
| Day | Doom | Dawn | Doom headline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Mar 4 | 62.4% | 37.6% | IRAN CALLS THIS THE OPENING MOVE |
| Tue, Mar 3 | 67.6% | 32.4% | AMERICANS DEAD. HORMUZ CLOSED. MARKETS SCREAMING. |
| Mon, Mar 2 | 67.8% | 32.2% | THE WAR JUST HIT A NATO ALLY'S DOORSTEP |
| Sun, Mar 1 | 77.1% | 22.9% | DAY TWO: MISSILES IN DUBAI, MARKETS IN FREEFALL |
| Sat, Feb 28 | 70.0% | 30.0% | OPERATION EPIC FURY IS VERY MUCH HAPPENING |
| Fri, Feb 27 | 39.4% | 60.6% | AI COMPANY TELLS WAR DEPARTMENT TO GO POUND SAND |
| Thu, Feb 26 | 37.7% | 62.3% | COUNTDOWN CLOCK ON IRAN DEAL, WARSHIPS CLOSING IN |
| Wed, Feb 25 | 37.5% | 62.5% | THE ROBOTS KEEP CHOOSING NUKES |
| Tue, Feb 24 | 37.2% | 62.8% | EVERYONE'S BUILDING BIGGER BUTTONS |
| Mon, Feb 23 | 36.9% | 63.1% | ZELENSKY DROPS THE WW3 WORD |
| Sun, Feb 22 | 34.3% | 65.7% | SOUTH ASIA OPENS A NEW FRONT |
| Sat, Feb 21 | 31.0% | 69.0% | SUPREME COURT NUKES THE TARIFF AGENDA |
| Fri, Feb 20 | 37.2% | 62.8% | TEN DAYS TO DECIDE THE FATE OF THE WORLD |
| Thu, Feb 19 | 36.3% | 63.7% | STRIKE COULD HAPPEN BY SATURDAY |
How it works
Every morning a pipeline pulls a couple of hundred headlines from 16 news sources. Claude scores the day for doom three times without seeing past scores, takes the middle answer, and smooths it so a single loud headline can't swing the number on its own. Then it picks the day's best news for the dawn card, and each reading is painted as pixel art. Doom and dawn always add up to 100.
It's a thought experiment and a daily ritual, not a forecast.
pDoom on iPhone
The app has every reading since February, trend charts, and the factor breakdown behind each number. It's free.
Get pDoom free on iPhone