Sunday, March 1, 2026
77.1%doom
Critical, tier 8 of 10.
Yesterday's 'major combat operations' have become today's full regional conflagration — Iran is firing at Dubai hotels, Doha, Manama, and Jerusalem simultaneously, while the IRGC vows 'fierce retaliation' for a supreme leader who's been in power since before most millennials were born. The Strait of Hormuz sits ominously over the global economy like a cork over a very expensive bottle, and OpenAI just signed a deal with the 'Department of War' while everyone was distracted by the actual war. Russia and China are diplomatically furious but militarily sidelined — which is arguably the only thing keeping this from a clean 90%.
The story behind it: Iran may 'lash out harder' as Khamenei's death puts Tehran on a war footing, leaving the world bracing for what's next.
22.9%dawn
Warming Up, tier 3 of 10.
On a day when the headlines are dominated by war and regional catastrophe, scientists quietly handed humanity a potential weapon against one of its most persistent slow-motion killers: antibiotic-resistant bacteria. Researchers have identified a shared vulnerability across multiple bacterial strains — a protein that unrelated viruses have independently learned to disable, pointing toward an entirely new class of antibiotics. Drug-resistant superbugs kill hundreds of thousands annually and were projected to overtake cancer as a leading cause of death this century; this discovery, if it holds up, could reshape that trajectory entirely.
The story behind it: Scientists discover a bacterial kill switch and it could change the fight against superbugs.
The days before
| Day | Doom | Dawn | Doom headline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Feb 28 | 70.0% | 30.0% | OPERATION EPIC FURY IS VERY MUCH HAPPENING |
| Fri, Feb 27 | 39.4% | 60.6% | AI COMPANY TELLS WAR DEPARTMENT TO GO POUND SAND |
| Thu, Feb 26 | 37.7% | 62.3% | COUNTDOWN CLOCK ON IRAN DEAL, WARSHIPS CLOSING IN |
| Wed, Feb 25 | 37.5% | 62.5% | THE ROBOTS KEEP CHOOSING NUKES |
| Tue, Feb 24 | 37.2% | 62.8% | EVERYONE'S BUILDING BIGGER BUTTONS |
| Mon, Feb 23 | 36.9% | 63.1% | ZELENSKY DROPS THE WW3 WORD |
| Sun, Feb 22 | 34.3% | 65.7% | SOUTH ASIA OPENS A NEW FRONT |
| Sat, Feb 21 | 31.0% | 69.0% | SUPREME COURT NUKES THE TARIFF AGENDA |
| Fri, Feb 20 | 37.2% | 62.8% | TEN DAYS TO DECIDE THE FATE OF THE WORLD |
| Thu, Feb 19 | 36.3% | 63.7% | STRIKE COULD HAPPEN BY SATURDAY |
| Wed, Feb 18 | 35.3% | 64.7% | SYRIA PULLOUT AS IRAN DRUMS BEAT LOUDER |
| Tue, Feb 17 | 34.0% | 66.0% | CARRIER DIPLOMACY: TALKING SOFTLY, CARRYING BIG SHIPS |
| Mon, Feb 16 | 28.0% | 72.0% | NETANYAHU SETS IMPOSSIBLE TERMS AS IRAN TALKS LOOM |
| Sun, Feb 15 | 28.0% | 72.0% | KREMLIN DEPLOYS EXOTIC POISON, WEST CONDEMNS |
How it works
Every morning a pipeline pulls a couple of hundred headlines from 16 news sources. Claude scores the day for doom three times without seeing past scores, takes the middle answer, and smooths it so a single loud headline can't swing the number on its own. Then it picks the day's best news for the dawn card, and each reading is painted as pixel art. Doom and dawn always add up to 100.
It's a thought experiment and a daily ritual, not a forecast.
pDoom on iPhone
The app has every reading since February, trend charts, and the factor breakdown behind each number. It's free.
Get pDoom free on iPhone