Saturday, March 21, 2026
50.1%doom
Threat Level, tier 6 of 10.
While the Middle East burns through its fourth week of war and the IEA is telling people to drive slower and ditch their gas cookers, OpenAI quietly announced it's building a fully automated AI researcher — the kind of system that could recursively accelerate its own development. Meanwhile, Palantir is hosting a developer conference where AI is literally 'built to win wars,' and the Trump administration just released a plan to gut state AI regulation. Nothing about this particular confluence of events should be reassuring.
The story behind it: OpenAI is throwing everything into building a fully automated researcher.
49.9%dawn
Bright Spot, tier 5 of 10.
Against a backdrop of war, energy crisis, and geopolitical chaos, nature delivered a quiet but emphatic win: Mexico's monarch butterfly population grew 64% this winter, reclaiming their largest forest footprint since 2018. This didn't happen by accident — it reflects years of cross-border conservation cooperation between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, farmers adjusting practices, and communities protecting overwintering forests. When doom feels structural and relentless, a 64% rebound in one of nature's most beloved migrations is a reminder that patient, coordinated human effort still bends outcomes toward life.
The story behind it: Mexico's monarch butterfly population jumps 64%, offering hope for at-risk species.
The days before
| Day | Doom | Dawn | Doom headline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Mar 20 | 50.6% | 49.4% | THE WAR JUST FOUND A NEW COUNTRY |
| Thu, Mar 19 | 54.0% | 46.0% | THE GAS FIELDS ARE BURNING NOW |
| Wed, Mar 18 | 54.6% | 45.4% | SECOND WAR OPENS WHILE NOBODY WAS WATCHING |
| Tue, Mar 17 | 56.0% | 44.0% | ISRAEL KEEPS BEHEADING THE SNAKE |
| Mon, Mar 16 | 56.3% | 43.7% | THE WAR FOUND THE BACKUP OIL ROUTE |
| Sun, Mar 15 | 57.6% | 42.4% | THE PRESIDENT SAID 'JUST FOR FUN' |
| Sat, Mar 14 | 60.3% | 39.7% | AMERICA JUST BOMBED THE WORLD'S GAS STATION |
| Fri, Mar 13 | 57.8% | 42.2% | NEW BOSS, SAME APOCALYPSE, LOUDER |
| Thu, Mar 12 | 58.3% | 41.7% | 20% OF THE WORLD'S OIL JUST WENT DARK |
| Wed, Mar 11 | 58.6% | 41.4% | THEY'RE MINING THE WORLD'S OIL DRAIN |
| Tue, Mar 10 | 58.9% | 41.1% | NEW SUPREME LEADER, SAME WAR, MORE MISSILES |
| Mon, Mar 9 | 59.4% | 40.6% | AMERICA PACKING BAGS IN RIYADH |
| Sun, Mar 8 | 60.8% | 39.2% | THEY JUST SET THE OIL ON FIRE |
| Sat, Mar 7 | 61.3% | 38.7% | RUSSIA FEEDING IRAN THE COORDINATES |
How it works
Every morning a pipeline pulls a couple of hundred headlines from 16 news sources. Claude scores the day for doom three times without seeing past scores, takes the middle answer, and smooths it so a single loud headline can't swing the number on its own. Then it picks the day's best news for the dawn card, and each reading is painted as pixel art. Doom and dawn always add up to 100.
It's a thought experiment and a daily ritual, not a forecast.
pDoom on iPhone
The app has every reading since February, trend charts, and the factor breakdown behind each number. It's free.
Get pDoom free on iPhone