Friday, May 22, 2026
35.9%doom
Storm Brewing, tier 4 of 10.
The US is now so absorbed in its Iran war that it's pausing a $14 billion arms package to Taiwan — the island that exists specifically because it needs those arms. Meanwhile Trump is sending 5,000 troops to Poland while threatening Cuba, suggesting the administration is simultaneously picking fights on three continents while running low on bullets for all of them. The strategic bandwidth is not infinite, and America's adversaries have calendars.
The story behind it: US navy chief says $14bn arms sale to Taiwan paused due to Iran war.
64.1%dawn
Golden Hour, tier 7 of 10.
Against a backdrop of geopolitical fracture — Iran tensions, Cuba threats, nuclear anxieties — 141 countries just chose to stand together on climate. Experts are calling it a 'new chapter' for climate diplomacy, and crucially, the resolution strengthens the legal architecture for climate litigation, giving communities actual tools to hold polluters accountable. When nearly three-quarters of the world's nations agree on anything right now, that's not nothing — that's a signal worth holding onto.
The story behind it: UN's climate crisis vote shows political momentum is growing, say experts.
The days before
| Day | Doom | Dawn | Doom headline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, May 21 | 37.7% | 62.3% | THE MACHINE REWRITES MATHEMATICS |
| Wed, May 20 | 38.5% | 61.5% | IRAN THREATENS TO EXPORT THE WAR |
| Tue, May 19 | 40.7% | 59.3% | IRAN STRIKE POSTPONED, NOT CANCELLED |
| Mon, May 18 | 39.9% | 60.1% | SOMEONE SHOT AT A NUCLEAR PLANT. CASUALLY. |
| Sun, May 17 | 35.9% | 64.1% | EBOLA GETS THE OFFICIAL SCARY STAMP |
| Sat, May 16 | 36.0% | 64.0% | EBOLA CROSSES THE BORDER, BUNDIBUGYO EDITION |
| Fri, May 15 | 38.4% | 61.6% | HORMUZ HEATS UP: SHIPS DON'T COME BACK |
| Thu, May 14 | 36.1% | 63.9% | XI PUTS TAIWAN ON THE TABLE, SMILING |
| Wed, May 13 | 38.5% | 61.5% | PUTIN FIRES WORLD'S MOST POWERFUL MISSILE. FOR FUN. |
| Tue, May 12 | 40.2% | 59.8% | CEASEFIRE ON LIFE SUPPORT, WARPLANES ON STANDBY |
| Mon, May 11 | 40.1% | 59.9% | STRAIT STAYS SHUT AS BOTH SIDES DIG IN |
| Sun, May 10 | 36.3% | 63.7% | DEAD DICTATOR TRIGGERS END OF WORLD, AUTOMATICALLY |
| Sat, May 9 | 32.2% | 67.8% | WESTERN ALLIANCE SCRAMBLES TO PLUG DECADES-LONG HOLE |
| Fri, May 8 | 39.1% | 60.9% | TRUMP THREATENS IRAN WITH NUCLEAR GLOW |
How it works
Every morning a pipeline pulls a couple of hundred headlines from 16 news sources. Claude scores the day for doom three times without seeing past scores, takes the middle answer, and smooths it so a single loud headline can't swing the number on its own. Then it picks the day's best news for the dawn card, and each reading is painted as pixel art. Doom and dawn always add up to 100.
It's a thought experiment and a daily ritual, not a forecast.
pDoom on iPhone
The app has every reading since February, trend charts, and the factor breakdown behind each number. It's free.
Get pDoom free on iPhone