Monday, April 6, 2026
46.1%doom
Elevated, tier 5 of 10.
Trump has given Iran until Tuesday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on power plants and bridges — an ultimatum delivered via expletive-filled Easter Sunday Truth Social post, because nothing says 'Prince of Peace' like threatening civilian infrastructure. Meanwhile the IRGC says the Strait will 'never' revert to its pre-war state, Iran bombed its own top university somehow got bombed, and investors are quietly sweating through what CNBC is diplomatically calling 'binary outcomes.' A ceasefire proposal is floating around, but so were the missiles over Dubai last week.
The story behind it: Trump vows Iran will be 'living in Hell' by Tuesday if Strait of Hormuz deadline missed.
53.9%dawn
Radiant, tier 6 of 10.
Even as the world braces for Tuesday's Iran deadline and oil prices stay volatile, researchers have quietly delivered something remarkable: an AI architecture that slashes energy consumption by 100-fold while actually improving accuracy. At a moment when AI's voracious power appetite was becoming its own geopolitical liability — feeding the same grid pressures straining conflict zones — this is the kind of breakthrough that bends the curve. It won't stop missiles, but it signals that the ingenuity driving our problems is also quietly solving them.
The story behind it: AI breakthrough cuts energy use by 100x while boosting accuracy.
The days before
| Day | Doom | Dawn | Doom headline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Apr 5 | 42.9% | 57.1% | THE WAR IS NOW A REGIONAL UTILITY PROBLEM |
| Sat, Apr 4 | 46.1% | 53.9% | THE WAR FINDS A NEW ZIP CODE |
| Fri, Apr 3 | 42.6% | 57.4% | THE PRICE OF WAR IS NOW AT THE PUMP |
| Thu, Apr 2 | 43.7% | 56.3% | IRAN PUTS SILICON VALLEY IN ITS CROSSHAIRS |
| Wed, Apr 1 | 44.9% | 55.1% | TRUMP THREATENS TO DISSOLVE THE WESTERN ORDER |
| Tue, Mar 31 | 46.3% | 53.7% | THE ALGORITHM LEARNED TO KILL FIRST |
| Mon, Mar 30 | 46.4% | 53.6% | THE PRESIDENT JUST THREATENED TO DETONATE THE GLOBAL ECONOMY |
| Sun, Mar 29 | 43.3% | 56.7% | ANOTHER FRONT OPENS FOR BUSINESS |
| Sat, Mar 28 | 43.8% | 56.2% | WAR SPREADS BEYOND BORDERS |
| Fri, Mar 27 | 44.3% | 55.7% | CLOSE CALL AT 30,000 FEET |
| Thu, Mar 26 | 44.9% | 55.1% | WINNING THE BATTLE, LOSING THE MAGAZINE |
| Wed, Mar 25 | 45.2% | 54.8% | PEACE TALKS AND PARATROOPERS, SIMULTANEOUSLY |
| Tue, Mar 24 | 49.3% | 50.7% | ROCKET MAN MAKES IT PERMANENT |
| Mon, Mar 23 | 49.7% | 50.3% | FIVE DAYS TO TALK THE WORLD OFF THE LEDGE |
How it works
Every morning a pipeline pulls a couple of hundred headlines from 16 news sources. Claude scores the day for doom three times without seeing past scores, takes the middle answer, and smooths it so a single loud headline can't swing the number on its own. Then it picks the day's best news for the dawn card, and each reading is painted as pixel art. Doom and dawn always add up to 100.
It's a thought experiment and a daily ritual, not a forecast.
pDoom on iPhone
The app has every reading since February, trend charts, and the factor breakdown behind each number. It's free.
Get pDoom free on iPhone