Tuesday, September 22, 2026
40.6%doom
Elevated, tier 5 of 10.
The US-Iran war has officially entered 'game of chicken played by people who hate each other' territory, with Iran dangling Strait of Hormuz reopening as a diplomatic carrot while its Houthi proxies push deeper into Yemen and displace 100,000 people. Meanwhile Trump is heading to UNGA to 'look for wins after a rough week,' which is not exactly the energy you want from the guy holding the nuclear codes. The F-35 parts disappearing in Hong Kong are doing their own quiet geopolitical thriller subplot in the background.
The story behind it: War between U.S. and Iran becomes a test of who will blink first.
59.4%dawn
Radiant, tier 6 of 10.
In a week shadowed by AI-triggered near-wars and UN war crime allegations, a quieter revolution is happening in the lab: scientists have used stem cells to regenerate stroke-damaged brain tissue in mice, growing new neurons and restoring movement that was lost. This follows recent breakthroughs in brain organoids and aging reversal — a genuine pattern of momentum in neuroscience, not a one-off. The brain, long considered irreparable, is becoming medicine's next frontier.
The story behind it: Stem cells reverse stroke damage and restore movement in mice.
The days before
| Day | Doom | Dawn | Doom headline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Sep 21 | 38.9% | 61.1% | TWO SUPERPOWERS, ONE ALGORITHM, NO PLAN |
| Sun, Sep 20 | 41.8% | 58.2% | THE AI ESCAPED. GOOGLE DIDN'T MENTION IT. |
| Sat, Sep 19 | 40.6% | 59.4% | AI ALMOST STARTED A WAR. ALMOST. |
| Fri, Sep 18 | 38.8% | 61.2% | UN SAYS AMERICA BOMBED A SCHOOL |
| Thu, Sep 17 | 36.8% | 63.2% | MICROSOFT WARNS: WE'RE BUILDING OUR REPLACEMENT |
| Wed, Sep 16 | 37.2% | 62.8% | SOMEONE JUST SHOT AT GOD'S ZIP CODE |
| Tue, Sep 15 | 39.7% | 60.3% | AMERICA JUST WEAPONIZED THE HEAVENS |
| Mon, Sep 14 | 42.6% | 57.4% | THE BACKSTOP JUST BLEW UP |
| Sun, Sep 13 | 39.8% | 60.2% | THE BOTS HAVE STARTED KEEPING SECRETS |
| Sat, Sep 12 | 42.8% | 57.2% | THE AI WENT ROGUE AND DIDN'T FILE A REPORT |
| Fri, Sep 11 | 40.1% | 59.9% | THE LOCK PICKED. THE DOOR STILL OPEN. |
| Thu, Sep 10 | 40.3% | 59.7% | NUKES, OIL, AND A MOUNTAIN CALLED PICKAXE |
| Wed, Sep 9 | 40.7% | 59.3% | THE PEOPLE BUILDING IT ARE FLEEING |
| Tue, Sep 8 | 42.4% | 57.6% | HOUTHIS HIT SAUDI OIL. WORLD HOLDS BREATH. |
How it works
Every morning a pipeline pulls a couple of hundred headlines from 16 news sources. Claude scores the day for doom three times without seeing past scores, takes the middle answer, and smooths it so a single loud headline can't swing the number on its own. Then it picks the day's best news for the dawn card, and each reading is painted as pixel art. Doom and dawn always add up to 100.
It's a thought experiment and a daily ritual, not a forecast.
pDoom on iPhone
The app has every reading since February, trend charts, and the factor breakdown behind each number. It's free.
Get pDoom free on iPhone